Winners and Losers in Putin’s War by Richard Haass

 Winners and Losers in Putin’s War by Richard Haass



Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has led to not one war, but two: A Russian war waged mainly against Ukraine’s cities and civilian population, and a war fought by Ukraine’s armed forces against Russian troops. Russia is winning the former, Ukraine is winning the latter, and international cooperation is losing everywhere.

NEW YORK – It is one month into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine. Actually, there are two wars: A Russian war waged mainly against Ukraine’s cities and civilian population, and a war fought by Ukraine’s armed forces against Russian troops. Russia is winning the former; Ukraine is winning the latter.

Ideally, negotiations will lead to a ceasefire and a lasting settlement. But it is equally if not more likely that the conflict will continue for some time, especially if Putin decides to embrace a strategy that reduces the exposure of his troops to combat and rejects a negotiated outcome on terms the government of Ukraine could accept. “Limited war, no peace,” to paraphrase Trotsky, would be the result.

Who would be the winners and losers in such a scenario?

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