Ukraine Latest: Russian Training Camp Massacre; New Grain Talks

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(Bloomberg) —

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At least 11 soldiers were killed after two men — said to be from an unnamed ex-Soviet state — opened fire at a Russian military training camp near the border with Ukraine, according to state-run media. The incident comes as Russia intensifies mobilization efforts and has already deployed thousands of new recruits into combat. 

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The mayor’s office in Russian-annexed Donestsk was struck by a missile on Sunday. Over a dozen explosions were reported near the Belgorod airport in Russia, not far from the border with Ukraine, injuring at least four. A day earlier, a fiery blast occured at a Belgorod-area fuel depot. 

President Vladimir Putin plans to hold a security council meeting in the coming week, Russian media reported. No day was given and no specific agenda provided. Russia’s leader typically gathers the council a few times a month; it last met on Oct. 14, the day Moscow launched dozens of missile strikes across Ukraine. 

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(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.) 

Key Developments

On the Ground

Two people were injured in a strike in the Belgorod region, about 50 km north of the border with Ukraine, the region’s governor said. Social media posts suggested multiple explosions and showed smoke billowing. Russian forces conducted five missile and 23 air strikes, as well as attacks from multiple-launch rockets, in the last 24 hours and more than 30 settlements were hit, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said on Facebook early Sunday. It said Russian attacks were repelled in several areas but there were no indications of major changes at the front line. Ten Ukrainians were killed and 14 injured in Saturday strikes, according to the deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s staff, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. 

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(All times CET)

Ukraine, Turkish Officials Meet on Grain Deal (2:50 p.m.)

Oleksander Kubrakov, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, held talks Sunday with Hulusi Akar, Turkey’s defense minister, on the Black Sea safe-transit deal that’s seen over 7.5 millions of tons of Ukrainian farm products shipped since August. 

Separately, in Moscow, UN Deputy Secretary General Martin Griffiths held talks on the deal with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin, according to Tass. There was no immediate word on the outcome. 

Kubrakov said there was “no doubt” the initiative, which runs through Nov. 22, will continue. Ukraine is keen to speed up vessel inspections by the Turkish-run co-ordination center, Tass reported. Over 340 ships have sailed under the initiative so far, including another four on Sunday. 

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Belarus Says Russia Sending 9,000 Troops for Joint Force (2:12 p.m.)

Moscow plans to send about 9,000 troops to Belarus for a new joint force, while warplanes are also en route, Tass reported, citing officials in Minsk. A Belarusian monitoring group spotted Russian MiG-31 fighters flying into Minsk. 

The first of the trains carrying the Russians have begun to arrive and the process will take several days, Belarusian officials said. 

Belarus announced the force last week, fueling fears it could be a cover for a new move by Russian troops into Ukraine from the north. Moscow launched its failed drive toward Kyiv in February from Belarusian territory. 

Mayor’s Office in Russian-Annexed Hit By Missile Strike (11:35 a.m.)

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The mayor’s office in the Russian-annexed Ukrainian city of Donetsk was hit by a missile Sunday, injuring four people and causing substantial damage, state news agencies reported.

RIA said the attack was a direct hit on the building in downtown Donetsk, capital of one of the self-declared separatist zones in the Donbas region. Local officials also reported one person was killed in another attack in the area Sunday.

The strike comes as several explosions were heard in the Belgorod region of Russia, about 50 km north of the Ukrainian border. Social media posts show smoke billowing from around the city’s airport.  

Forced Deportations Amount to Ethnic Cleansing of Ukrainians, ISW Says (10 a.m.)

Massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians, including children subsequently put up for adoption, “likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign” and a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, said the Institute for the Study of War. 

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Moscow may be carrying out a wider ethnic cleansing campaign “by depopulating Ukrainian territory through deportations and repopulating Ukrainian cities with imported Russian citizens,” the US-based military analysts said in a report. 

Ukrainian sources have said that reconstruction projects in Mariupol, the southern city mostly razed by Russia bombardments in the spring, are intended to house “tens of thousands of Russians.”

Gazprom Threatens to Cut Gas Supplies to Countries That Cap Prices (9:30 a.m.)

Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said the Russian gas giant would suspend supplies to countries that impose a price cap, reiterating a threat made by the Kremlin.

Miller said any cap would be a breach in contract terms and thus lead to a halt in deliveries, Tass reported. With European leaders discussing a possible limit on prices for fuel from Russia, Vladimir Putin and his government have said they would cut shipments in retaliation.

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Most of Russia’s gas exports to western Europe, once its largest export market, have been suspended amid ongoing tensions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Iran Stepping Up Arms Deliveries to Russia: WaPost (9 a.m.) 

Tehran will supply Russia with what officials describe as the first Iranian-made surface-to-surface missiles, in addition to replenishing its supply of attack drones, the Washington Post reported, citing US and allied security officials. 

Iran is preparing for the first time to send Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles, the newspaper reported, citing officials briefed on the matter. Such missiles would help Moscow replenish a fast shrinking supply of precision-guided munitions, such as those used in last week’s strikes against several Ukrainian cities. 

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Iran has repeatedly denied supplying drones to Russia despite mounting evidence of their use in the war. Ukraine’s military estimates Russian still has about 300 Iranian-made drones with plans to buy thousands more. Separately, the UK defence ministry said on Sunday that Russia is probably incapable of producing advanced munitions at the rate they’re being expended.

Read more: Russia Failed to Swap Out Western Military Parts: 2021 Audit

Eleven Killed at Shooting at Russian Training Base (8 a.m.)

At least 11 people were killed and 15 wounded at a training base in the Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border Saturday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, according to Interfax. Unconfirmed reports on Telegram put the death toll much higher. The Belgorod region’s governor called the incident “terrorism.”

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The two citizens of another unnamed ex-Soviet state who opened fire at the weapons training session for “volunteers” headed to Ukraine were killed, the ministry said. Calling the attackers “terrorists,” it provided few other details. The region’s governor said all the dead and wounded were military personnel.

Moscow has sought to build up the ranks of its military by offering citizens of former Soviet states the chance to get Russian passports in return for serving in its military.

Ukraine’s Naftogaz in Talks to Market Gas Reserves: Telegraph (7:42 a.m.)

Ukraine is in talks with US drillers to pump gas from its untapped reserves to Europe and ease the region’s energy crisis by the end of the decade, the Telegraph reported, citing an interview with an adviser to Naftogaz’s chief executive.

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“We have a number of resources and gas reserves there that are basically the second largest in Europe,” said Myron Wasylyk. “We estimate there could be up to 40 billion cubic meters.”

Musk Signals He’s Backing Off Starlink Threat (8:42 p.m.)

Elon Musk said Saturday he’d continue to fund Starlink satellites in Ukraine “for free” after a standoff with the US Defense Department over the cost of their deployment.

Musk threatened a day earlier to cut financial support for SpaceX’s satellite internet service in Ukraine, claiming that the operation had cost his company $80 million so far. The Pentagon said it was in talks with SpaceX, while saying the US is looking at other options.